Linux by any chance?

In 2030, we can be proud if there are still versions for Windows and macOS. Desktop computers become dead and are more and more replaced by smarthones. Unfortunately.

 

What about the laptop?

Every single decade since the 90s they said the desktop would die.
Cheap client computers.
Netbooks.
Internet of things.
Tablets.
Cellphones.

Every time they've been wrong.
Maybe COVID will finally kill it off.

 

Well laptops were hit by tablets and Intel couldn't deliver in each time a better x86 chip than ARM counterpart (to name the worst: ATOMs) and step by step Apple get better and better proposals until nowadays where they are leaving Intel even on desktops. The first machines will be mac mini and (probably based on rumours) macbook air. Also first macbook air pointed a new line of laptops (called ultrabooks) to draw a line between the bulky laptops of that era and blurring lines into what we are going to see: morphing between iPad pros and macbooks (more or less like lenovo yogas or surfaces but with dedicated, optimised and streamlined OS, which once again, will make the difference)

So, it depends on what you call laptop. Maybe not dead but evolving into something very different from the old thinkpads for sure (and these were really good and it's iterations too).

Covid hit the world so, being a reason or excuse, maybe you are right and will suppose the nail in the coffin. I'm not so sure that time has arrived yet but who knows?
Maybe Aliens next month will bring us some new nicer tech that brands could implement :V

 

We also must imagine that there is not much happening in the market of desktop operating systems and desktop software anymore (laptops run desktop operating systems).

The software industry as well as open source developers don't have a big focus on Windows, macOS and desktop-Linux anymore. Consumers don't need to buy a new computer anymore every few years to run the latest software because not much does change anymore.

Meanwhile developers spend much energy in the development of touch applications and cloud solutions to make smartphones and tablets suitable as a replacement for the classical computer that runs win/mac/linux. And nowadays, you need iOS or Android for many things because no more desktop software is provided for the same purpose.

Beside Instagram, some banks require a smartphone app for online banking, some developers of smarthome equipment also provide apps but no desktop software and so on.

And the same seems to happen in the music production sector sooner or later. Nowadays, there are already some hardware synthesizers and controllers which are useless until you dock an Apple device on it and software instruments that run on an iPhone instead as VST/AU plugin are still a market.

 

Yeah not much is happening other than Windows 10 was on a billion machines 18 months ago:
https://www.theverge.com/2019/1/2/1...ndows 10 operating,36.9 percent for Windows 7.

And then...

https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom...cent-in-4q19-and-point-6-percent-for-the-year

Hate to disappoint but laptops and desktops are not going away any time soon.

 

The reason we don't see the huge performance jumps like we use to see a decade ago is because we are approaching what is physically possible to push through the current technologies without causing everything to explode. It's already mind boggling how much processors are able to handle now but still, users expect more since most don't want to hift they way they work, they want things to be ever m,ore powerful to keep up with their inefficient ways.

There are still many small improvements and refinements that happen ongoing that just don't attract the same excitement.... one such was already mentioned where it now is no longer required to upgrade or format your system every few years to keep it from falling behind too much, this has improved a ton since the mid 2000, especially on a Windows system where speeds of SSD and better file and OS management keep a system running very productively for years without much work.

Consumers don't need computers for the most part, that market is dying and that is evident by many computer suppliers and warehouses shutting down and the custom market being a lot smaller, however for most professionals there will always be a need to have a powerful system, that wont change for decades yet until cloud computing can solve the bandwidth and latency issues with powerful predictive AI systems... That opens up a whole new can of worms tho and that will take decades to become reality, which by then, humans probably won't be needed much at all.

 

Gartner is sponsored by Microsoft; therefore not very serious.

 

Reality is Arm will wipe out for bedroom machines in 3 years. In fact is done by iPhones but djs still not get it (as later adopters thinking they are forward adopters) so Djay Pro and DjPlayer are like traktor and Serato and soon they will blow the desktop/laptop meanwhile these two big brands are still figuring about the market shift... NI still has a chance and Serato should be working on something if they are smart...

Proof? TDj2 is universal and traktor pro 3 will be discontinnued or revamped.

 

I remember in the 90s people were saying ARM would wipe out Intel ... We shall see.

 

It seems done. Denon standalone, TDj2 on iPad, Djay Pro and Djplayer have more features than desktop software... and now Apple is ditching x86.

 

True. The current ARM windows laptops are just for light loads, email, web browsing, etc.. I dont see them beating intel anytime soon.
The Apple iPad Pro chips are pretty powerful and do match medium intel laptops tho, at much lower power consumption/heat.

AMD already kind of wiped out Intel for the time being, in the server/workstation space the cost to performance difference is insane, desktop computers the same thing and this year laptops have finally also done the same with the Ryzen 4000-series. There's no reason for the common consumer or enthusiast to buy intel right now unless the user have a very specific workload that requires a particular intel-only feature or he just likes throwing $$ way for less performance. #RIPintel.

On topic, I wouldn't expect NI to support Linux, not even in 2030.
I wouldn't expect Windows to ever force their userbase towards ARM, not even 2030.
Apple has no problems forcing what they want into the userbase tho, so... they will force NI to support ARM... on MacOS.

 

yes yes... just macOS... yes yes...
meanwhile in the present...



wake up, there is no macOS anymore. Apple is merging both and the base is iPadOS.

 

"Just MacOS" in the sense that Windows is not doing the same for now, at least not as aggressively.

Sure macOS is becoming iPadOS but the opposite also applies, iPads didn't even have a proper file manager not so long ago, same for mouse support and another basic laptop/desktop things people need, so what's the "base" is relative; merging means putting two things together.

Thanks for the example but "in the present" I see DJ Angelo using his laptop to DJ, not his iPad, that looks like a sponsored video, basically an AD... this is not to say iPads aren't impressive tho, in the tech world even the notorious Apple haters (think Linus) recognize it's the most powerful tablet.

NI is certainly sleeping on the mobile market by seemingly abandoning iMaschine, they will regret it in a couple of years.

 

Yes but the merge point is nearest to iPad than Mac(book or whatever). That's why I said "wake up"... it's not future, it's past and present. When Apple decides to release such kind of movement and get you "offside" means you were sleeping as you pointed.

So I'm alsp agree on iMaschine so I sent a PM message to Kai @ NI with an interesting software resource hardware based with crossplatform capabilities which could translate into "code once, export to everything" but I didn't get response after that... let's hope they are considering it and bring us new line of amazing products in the future.

I've been saying they were sleeping from maybe 5 years ago or more pointing to this market shift. Let's hope any of my advices* gets somewhere this time...










*Some of there are fruit of been at forums listening/discussing plus my own research in real world solutions.

 

Maybe every day casual users will shift more towards touch screens, but for example people that play games like call of duty, want mouse, keyboard and killer videocard. And this is a big market. Also, in offices and schools, a mouse and keyboard is just faster. Although in my previous school, there were ipads for many students. But apart from those boxes with ipads, every teacher used a laptop and the school pc’s. All teachers afaik, use a laptop. It is just much quicker to prepare lessons with. A tablet or phone is just more comfortable while hanging in your couch or when travelling for example. And it is perfect when hooked up to a mic. It has its uses for sure, but for everydayoffice work, i dont see it happening. It is a pain in the butt to do any type of work in excel with a touchscreen. Or game, website developing. It is a nightmare on touchscreens

 

That argument is so 2010... Please check the latest (and newcoming) iPadOS...
BTW schools? If Covid gets until September, schools are going to be virtual so people will keep using these laptops (or iPad with mouse) to make the classes but from home (hanging these in their couches...)
Also how many students vs teacher are in the world? Make your numbers...

 

Most students, children in cities simply cannot afford laptops, tablets etc. Maybe in Sweden or something it’s different.
I’m not sure why you are offended either.
Both laptops, desktops and tablets have their uses. I don’t think one will replace the other any time soon.

 

They will merge, that's it. Not offence, just keeping my point.
Time will tell us, just wait until end of year (if Aliens doesn't kidnap us lol) with the new ARMacbooks. These will be laptops but not laptops at the same time. Grab my words.

 

They already “merged”. You could purchase hybrid tablet-laptops years ago already. Chromebooks and what have you. Maybe in the future all laptops have touch screens, but then they are laptops with touchscreens. And tablets with mouse and keyboards are just that: tablet with mouse and keyboards.
If Apple merges ios with macos, yes. But that will never happen.
Our fingers are not accurate enough. Fingertips are like big oil sticks. And using a pen means using an armrest. My right hand is pretty accurate because I trained it when drawing and painting on easels for over 20 years. But still it is pain to accurately use a touchscreen for everyday work. What about using contextual menus with those big clumsy oil sticks? people will not part with tactile keyboards. Tablet GUI’s are different than “computer” GUI’s. Because of our fingertips, because of mouse hovering, etc... I don’t see it happening with the current technology. Maybe with super futuristic invisible fingerextensions or I don’t know what kind of alien like brain transmitting technology. But that’s a whole different thing.
Financially, for Apple it makes no sense to merge their laptops and tablets into one device. They are focusing on integration. There’s a reason Logic is cheap and they don’t charge for updates. Logic Remote is free too and works butter smooth. It is very functional. They will lose so much money if they just make one does-it-all device with two GUI’s. They will never do it
But I will “mark your words”, sure. No problem!

 

Yup you can't get more "merged" than me.
2 in 1 laptop.
Linux, Windows 10 and Catalina multiboot (not virtual).
I can do absolutely everything but it took a month to set it up properly.