Why You Won't See Traktor on Linux

Discussion in 'General DJ Forum' started by empolo, Apr 27, 2009.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. empolo

    empolo NI Product Owner

    Messages:
    327
    __________________

    This seems like a chicken-and-egg problem to me. Tobias states that "the number of "Linux-only" DJs is very low". Is it me or is that possibly due to the fact that the number of Linux DJ applications is very low? ;)

    So digital DJ's - how many of you would support a version on Linux considering that you can (1) obtain a number of Linux distributions for free (or with support subscriptions if you so choose) thus keeping your overall platform costs low, (2) optimize the OS for low-latency audio (there are entire user communities focused on real-time kernel performance alone) and (3) gain immediate access to a wealth of community resources not only focused on Linux in general but also on Linux pro-audio specifically.

    Sounds to me like money is actually being left on the table because there is no opportunity for users to put it there in the first place. What do you think?
     
  2. PhilL

    PhilL Moderator Moderator

    Messages:
    7,066
    I'm sure that if you put up money its likely to be left on the table. Considering that NI Might optimistically sell many 10's of copies and the dev, build and support estimates are probably several 100K in the first three years I doubt anyone would say building a Linux version for such a niche market space was a smart business decision. Would you put up 750K of your money to see this happen? I know I would not. There is no realistic return on your money here.

    Market Stats are this
    Linux has 0.90% of the O/S Space
    Mac is next at 9.8%
    Windows is next and top at 88.1%

    Lets assume for a second that there are 1 Billion computers capable of running Traktor on the planet, now lets assume that 900K of those computers run Linux and of those 900K people, just 0.05% would use Traktor, thats 4,500 people by my 2 second quick reckoning Now lets say 60% of that 4500 peeps actually pay real money money for it, that 2925 people at $500 = $147,000.00 give or take a few 10Ks. Yeah that looks like a winner of a business option to me, or not. It may be money on the table but its not much money... certainly not enough to make a compelling business case.

    Phil

    P.S. the source for market share stats?...
    http://marketshare.hitslink.com/operating-system-market-share.aspx?qprid=8
     
  3. 96k

    96k Forum Member

    Messages:
    245
    Traktor is the only application that ties me to Windows, if it was available on linux I'd switch over completely.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  4. empolo

    empolo NI Product Owner

    Messages:
    327
    And so would a significant amount of other people. Being that Linux is available free of charge, how many new customers could be attracted simply because their cost of ownership (from an OS licensing perspective) is low or nill?

    I understand the arguments about market share and ROI - it's an obvious argument but also potentially flawed if the statistics are based on actual sales (Linux distributions can be downloaded free of charge). The chicken and egg problem I mentioned before is still present, regardless of these statistics. How does NI know that they wouldn't see a significant amount of users migrate over to the Linux platform if NI's products were available on it?

    Market dynamics rule the day but I still don't see why there can't be at least an effort to have Traktor (and other NI products) work with the Wine translation layer. Development resources have already been allocated to ALSA driver development so why not expand upon it?
     
  5. PhilL

    PhilL Moderator Moderator

    Messages:
    7,066
    Thats why I like MarketShare because its based on installed units not 'paid-Installed-units'

    Phil
     
  6. PhilL

    PhilL Moderator Moderator

    Messages:
    7,066
    OK so lets say you are a Product Manager, a sizeable chunk of your performance bonus this year is based on how many units you sell of any project you put into the market. This year you can do only ONE Product: A or B. No ifs no buts no halfways one or the other.
    Lets say you have two products to choose from though, one is cheap to produce but will only sell maybe 2000 units at $500.00 The Other costs more but sales will be 100-500 times that of your cheaper product so a a minimum its 200,000units X $700. Which are you gonna take to market? A straight up answer of Product A or B would be fine. ;) You can see where I'm going here right?

    Phil
     
  7. empolo

    empolo NI Product Owner

    Messages:
    327
    Yes.

    C.R.E.A.M > Community
     
  8. Kirk Smeaton

    Kirk Smeaton NI Product Owner

    Messages:
    401
    So who's going to start the open source DJ software project?

    Dekzilla?

    Given that support is where Traktor (and other software) often falls down the "get the software free, pay for support" model might work well.
     
  9. empolo

    empolo NI Product Owner

    Messages:
    327
    +1.

    This is how Red Hat moves. Subscription-based support.

    As far as open-source DJ software goes, Mixxx is the most prominent project. Matter of fact, they just released 1.7.0B1 which adds MIDI scripting support.

    LInk --> http://www.mixxx.org/
     
  10. Kirk Smeaton

    Kirk Smeaton NI Product Owner

    Messages:
    401
    Downloading Mixx now.
    Thanks for that empolo.
     
  11. empolo

    empolo NI Product Owner

    Messages:
    327
  12. lethal_pizzle

    lethal_pizzle NI Product Owner

    Messages:
    10,600
    I wanna see Traktor on AmigaOS. I'm sure my 1200 is up to it.

    Seriously though I'm pretty sure that whilst there are loads of DJs and wannabe DJs be out there, and there are loads of Linux geeks out there too, there aren't enough wannabe DJ Linux geeks to make this viable.
     
  13. empolo

    empolo NI Product Owner

    Messages:
    327
    Tally up the existing Windows users who would consider a move to DJ'ing on Linux if the software was available and add this to the amount of "wannabe DJ Linux geeks" then recount. :cool:
     
  14. lethal_pizzle

    lethal_pizzle NI Product Owner

    Messages:
    10,600
    Yeah I stopped when I ran out of fingers and toes but still can't see it being viable. Sorry.
     
  15. PhilL

    PhilL Moderator Moderator

    Messages:
    7,066

    Probably a few thousand at most worldwide and don't get me wrong it would be great if the numbers made sense, sadly though they don't. The commercial realities are that you would probably need a market that sold 100K units worldwide.... at least!

    Phil
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.